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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.