Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the reason of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

An Unstoppable Force

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still find their top level.

  • The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.

Madison Wilkins
Madison Wilkins

Elara is a forward-thinking analyst with a passion for exploring how technology and society intersect to create new opportunities.