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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."